If you think Mark Carney will win
Mark Carney, former governor of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, has a track record focused on economic stability, climate leadership and reduced reliance on foreign trade — and this particularly critical given the current situation with President Donald Trump and the back-and-forth on U.S. trade tariffs.
Under Carney, investors should expect significant federal support for green infrastructure and clean tech. In the past, Carney pushed for coordinated investment into green projects globally. A Canadian strategy would likely include expanded incentives for renewable energy generation, electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure, battery storage and carbon capture — although Carney doesn't appear to be abandoning Canada's oil and gas industry, just yet.
Read More: Best renewable energy stocks
Trade policy is another key piece of Carney's platform. He voiced scepticism about expanding trade with China, supporting shifting manufacturing capacity and supply chains back to Canada. This domestic push could benefit Canadian rail companies, fertilizer producers and auto part manufacturers — sectors most impacted by the threat and application of U.S. trade tariffs and ongoing global unrest.
Carney is also expected to favour stronger public healthcare infrastructure. He would likely continue expanding support for long-term care, digital health platforms and elder care solutions. Canada's aging population, projected to reach nine million seniors by 2030, makes this a key area for both public and private investment.
Read More: Best healthcare stocks
Finally, Carney has promised to help Canada's strained housing affordability issue by removing barriers to housing supply and providing tax incentives to first-time homebuyers. His plan aims to double the pace of residential construction to nearly 500,000 new homes annually over the next decade — the most significant build commitment since World War II. To expedite supply, he's committed to providing incentives to support prefabricated home builders and companies that focus on factory-built homes. This focus on housing is critical for all Canadians given that residential real estate contributes approximately 28% to the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or approximately $303 billion in output (in 2023).
Smart investing starts here
Get 100 free online equity trades with promo code EDGE100 when you open a CIBC Investor’s Edge account by Sept. 30, 2025. Click now to unlock 100 free trades and take control of your investments.
Get started todayIf you think Pierre Poilievre will win
Pierre Poilievre is a close second in national polls, according to CBC's poll tracker, and campaigning on a platform that favours deregulation, tax cuts and energy expansion. His economic vision is rooted in pro-growth conservatism and he's made it clear he intends to remove "gatekeepers" standing in the way of industry.
The most obvious sector to benefit under Poilievre is oil and gas. He promised to fast-track major energy projects and ease regulatory hurdles for pipeline development. In 2023, Canada produced about 4.8 million barrels of crude oil per day, and the industry contributed over $70 billion to GDP. Yet pipeline capacity remains a bottleneck. A Poilievre government could clear the way for new infrastructure, boosting companies that transport and produce oil and natural gas. As well as the firms that construct these projects.
Read More: How to invest in oil
Poilievre's platform would also favour the banking and real estate sectors. He committed to tax cuts and deregulation, particularly for small businesses and financial institutions. With interest rates expected to stabilize or fall in the second half of 2025, mortgage lenders and real estate investment trusts (REIT) could benefit from a more favourable lending environment. Poilievre has also floated allowing working seniors to earn up to $34,000 tax-free, which could stimulate additional investment activity and home ownership demand.
Read More: Canadian bank stocks
If you think Jagmeet Singh will influence government
Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrat Party (NDP) may not win a majority, but NDP support could be crucial in a minority parliament. And that influence would come with clear policy demands: Expanded public health care, affordable housing and a smooth transition to green jobs.
Singh is a long-time advocate for national pharmacare, dental care, and long-term care reform. In 2022, his party helped push through Canada's first federal dental care plan, and more recently he's pledged to continue targeting corporate landlords and high drug costs. This policy pressure could lead to expanded government contracts and funding for healthcare providers, pharmaceutical distributors and elder care services.
Housing is another major area of NDP focus. Singh has been vocal in attacking corporate landlords and promoting co-op housing models. In 2023, the NDP proposed a $5 billion affordable housing initiative aimed at creating 500,000 new units over the next 10 years. If even part of this becomes reality, companies in the space could see steady demand.
Canada’s top credit cards—find your perfect match!
Maximize rewards, save on interest, or earn cash back. Compare the best credit cards in Canada and pick the one that works for you!
Find Your Card NowFinal thoughts
Canada's 2025 federal race is already shaking up market sentiment. And depending on who you think will lead, different sectors could see a boost.
Mark Carney would likely prioritize clean energy, critical minerals and domestic infrastructure. Investors expecting a Carney-led government may want to focus on sectors tied to climate tech and Canadian supply chains, especially with renewed U.S. tariff threats on the horizon, as well as any sector or company with a focus on construction.
Pierre Poilievre is running on a platform built around energy expansion, tax cuts and deregulation. That could mean strong upside for oil and gas producers, banks and construction firms benefiting from faster project approvals and less red tape.
Jagmeet Singh may not lead, but his influence could shape policy in a minority government. His push for public healthcare, affordable housing and a just transition to renewables could drive long-term support for social infrastructure and green jobs.
Wondering how to buy stocks in Canada? Start by choosing from one of the best investment apps, many of which are offered by Canada’s discount brokerages. Whether you’re building a portfolio from scratch or just looking to diversify, the best ETFs in Canada can be a simple, cost-effective way to get started.
Sources
1. Government of Canada: Investing in Canada Plan – Building a Better Canada
2. Reuters: Chinese stocks offer hedge against fading U.S. exceptionalism, by Taosha Wong (Mar 17, 2025)
3. CBC: Canada Federal Poll Tracker
4. Politico: ‘Canada First’ Conservatives primed for Trump fight, by Mikey Djuric (Feb 15, 2025)
5. Globe and Mail: Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pledges to allow working seniors to earn up to $34,000 tax free, by Bill Curry (Mar 26, 2025)
6. Global News: Jagmeet Singh blasts corporate landlords during campaign event (Mar 25, 2025)
7. NDP
Smart investing starts here
Get 100 free online equity trades with promo code EDGE100 when you open a CIBC Investor’s Edge account by Sept. 30, 2025. Click here to unlock 100 free trades and take control of your investments. Get started today.
